The spontaneous society

In school they teach you that one of the drivers of economic progress over the centuries has been society's increasingly accurate management of time. The seasons had to be tracked so that farming cultures would know when to plant. Once people started sailing across the oceans, they needed reasonably accurate chronometers to measure longitude. When railroads were built, the idea of uniform time zones became important so that the trains could keep predictable timetables. The term "railroad time" is still sometimes used to mean keeping an accurate schedule.

By the time I was growing up, it was universally accepted that rigorous scheduling was one of the hallmarks of an advanced economy. We scheduled everything well in advance -- classes in school, meetings at work, even social events like parties and dates. How many movies and television shows have you seen where a character says, "pick you up at eight"? And don't be late.

A lack of rigorous time discipline, we were told, was one of the factors holding back economic growth in the developing world. That belief was so well accepted in the US that I don't think anyone even debated it.

So it's very interesting to see what electronic communication -- on PCs, but especially on mobiles -- is doing to time management in the world's most advanced economies. Where my generation pre-arranged its social calendar, I watch my kids make it up on the fly. They'll decide on IM that they all want to get together in an hour, or they'll agree via SMS that they're all going to hang out downtown that evening, where they then call or text each other to link up on the fly.

I have seen this developing for years, but I didn't have a gut feel for its power until earlier this year, when I took my family to Disneyland. Touring the Magic Kingdom with two kids was once an exercise in controlled paranoia. The place is so complicated and crowded that you lived in constant fear of losing one or more members of the family. If you did, it might take hours, and a long trip to the lost child center, to find them again.

Anytime we separated -- mom going with one child to one ride, and dad with another child to a different one -- we had to carefully agree on when and where we would meet up. Inevitably someone would be 15 or 20 minutes late, and you'd spend the whole time worrying that the vacation might fall apart.

It wasn't the walking that wore you out at Disneyland, it was the fear.

But the last time we went was the first time when everyone in the family was old enough to have a mobile phone. Suddenly, as we walked through the park on one of the busiest days of the year, we realized that we didn't have to worry any more. If a child got lost, they could call us. If two people wanted to go off in a different direction, that was no problem at all; we could just use the phone to find each other later.

In other words, we could stay together without staying in sight of each other.

That may not sound like a big difference, but it completely transformed the Disneyland experience. The food was still overpriced, and the lines way too long, but the whole thing was much less stressful. It was almost, dare I say it, relaxing.

It made me realize that a similar transition is happening throughout our society. Ubiquitous personal communication makes it much less important to rigorously schedule many elements of your day; you can just make it up as you go along.

As smartphones arose, we thought they were going to absorb the calendaring function of the PDA. They have somewhat, but I think mobile phones are also making the personal calendar less important.

The first time I went with Palm to China, our employees in Beijing cautioned me that I shouldn't talk about the great calendaring built into Palm handhelds, because people in China just didn't care about it. They didn't schedule meetings, I was told. If they wanted to talk to you, they would just give you a call. At the time I assumed that was just a transitional thing, that over time as their economy grew they would learn to do more and more scheduling. But now I'm starting to think that maybe they were ahead of the rest of us all along.

How to make a college basketball fan very, very happy

A year ago I wrote a frustrated critique of the CBS television network's online coverage of the US national college basketball tournament, which we fans affectionately call "March Madness" even though half of it happens in April (link).

In the tournament, which includes 65 teams, there are often four games underway at the same time, and they start at around 9 am on the west coast. It's an orgy of basketball, but often a painful and frustrating orgy because inevitably your team ends up playing during work hours, or its game isn't even carried on local TV.

Enter CBS, which for the last two years has streamed video of the games over the web. I was furious last year when one of my team's games was blacked out on the web stream. CBS cut off access to it online because it was also being broadcast on local TV; contract problems between the local stations and the network prohibited streaming a local game. As I pointed out in my post, the time you most want to watch the web stream is when you can't access a TV. So CBS was preventing the most important use of its web coverage.

I was pretty steamed. I wrote at the time:

This mess is typical of the foolishness that often happens when old line media companies try to deal with the Internet. They spend millions setting up an elaborate technological tour de force but neglect to take care of the basics, like letting fans actually watch the games they want to see, and making sure all the features work. The lesson: The product you deliver through a website isn't a bunch of HTML and Java code, it's a solution to the problem of a user. Unless all of the elements of that solution line up properly, your product is a failure.

Okay, fast forward a year. Now it's March Madness season again, and this time I have to give CBS credit. They have lined up all the elements of the solution, and they've created a terrific product for their users.

Every game is being streamed live, with no blackouts and no exceptions. The video is a little grainy, but very acceptable when you see it in motion.



Look at the live feed of scores below the video window. You can switch instantly to any game where the score looks interesting. Plus, after the game is over you can go back and watch highlights, or even re-stream the whole game if you want to.

One of the annoying things about watching the tournament on TV is that the network cuts away from one game to give updates on others. So if your team gets a good-sized lead, the announcers will say "let's go to New York" and all of a sudden you're watching Gonzaga play Cornell. When you're watching the web stream, the announcers still say, "let's go to New York," but then they don't go anywhere.

It all gives wonderful empowerment to the viewer. Tonight I could watch USC choke like a dog with a bad hunk of meat in its game with Kansas State, and then pop out to catch Belmont almost upset Duke. CBS showed me the score and time remaining for each game, and I could decide what I wanted to watch.

There's also the obligatory boss button, which displays an amusing fake spreadsheet.



Not that I'd ever need it. Nope, no watching games during work for me. Unh-uh, we're far too busy.

Did I mention that the CEO of Rubicon reads my blog? Hi, Nilofer.

The business side of me admires what CBS has done with its advertising in its tournament coverage. Take a look:



This is what happens whenever there's a timeout in the game. The ad panel on the right is coordinated with the ads that you see in the video stream at left. So companies can make click-through offers or give more details on the things they're advertising. In this case there's a free sample offer.

The whole coverage of the tournament is free; apparently the ads are paying for everything. I hope CBS is making a bundle, because the feed on the web isn't just convenient -- due to the extra control it gives me, watching the tournament on the web is better than watching it live on TV. This is the first time I've ever said that about the web version of a broadcast television show. I feel like I've gotten a little glimpse of the future of video, and I really like it.

Maybe it's possible to have too many developers

I never thought I'd say that, but Apple's making me wonder. Apple says 100,000 developers have already downloaded the iPhone SDK (link). For comparison, it took Palm a couple of years of heavy evangelism to hit the same milestone. That's a deceptive comparison, though -- Palm was a small and relatively unknown company at the time, whereas Apple is a huge brand, with a large base of current Mac developers that it can bring over to the iPhone.

So the process was quite a bit easier for Apple. But still, criminey, 100k is a lot of SDK downloads in just four days. Apple has clearly struck a nerve.

In addition to the 100k statistic, the Apple press release included new endorsements from companies like Intuit, Namco, PopCap (Bejeweled, baby), and SixApart. It's a very interesting variety of companies.

Which raises an interesting question: How in the world will all those developers find an audience? Based on the current iPhone installed base, Apple already has one developer for about every 40 iPhone users. Let's be optimistic and say every user will spend an average of $20 a year on applications (a figure much higher than we've seen on any other mobile platform). Apple keeps 30%, so there will be a total of $560 in revenue per year available to each iPhone developer (not to each app, to each developer). The iPod Touch will increase that number a bit, but not enough to change the math. Either Apple has to grow the installed base enormously, or there are going to be a lot of iPhone developers going hungry.